Looking at the initial reaction, the group led by Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli seems to be excited, while the Prachanda-Madhav group is shocked by the unexpected decision.
According to the leaders, the first step now is for the Oli and Prachanda-Madhav factions to decide whether to unite the party again or not.
On 23 June 2075, the Supreme Court overturned the decision to register the Communist Party of Nepal (CPN). The order has been issued in the name of the Election Commission.
That is the possible step to be taken by the commission. In such a situation, the unity of Oli and Prachanda-Madhav group can be achieved. Some leaders have said that the decision of the Supreme Court has given a new basis to unity.
One of them, Foreign Minister and Oli group leader Pradip Gyawali, said, “Today’s decision of the Supreme Court has brought the parties back to the pre-unification stage. It has opened the door for party unity on a truly scientific, objective and accurate basis.
Dev Gurung, an MP from the Prachanda-Madhav faction, argues that the former UML and the former UCPN (Maoist) center cannot be said to have gone astray. Stating that the change of name will not erase all the elements of integration, he said, “Justice was done at the wrong time. We have to see what it does. ‘
If the two sides do not unite, the former UML and the former UCPN (M) should move towards reviving the center.
It is not legally easy to go this route first. This is because the CPN (UML) headed by Sandhya Tiwari and the UCPN (M) headed by Gopal Kiranti have already registered with the Election Commission.
If this obstacle is overcome, politics will go to the next course. That means the current government led by Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli will be transformed into (2) instead of Article 76 (1) of the Constitution.
In such a case, the Maoist center will have to decide whether to stay in the Oli-led government or withdraw its support.
If the support is withdrawn, the prime minister must take a vote of confidence in parliament, along with the Congress or the Janata Samajwadi Party (JSP) to sustain the government. Because the former UML has 121 MPs. And, a majority of 138 is needed to form a government.
If the Congress, the Maoist Center and the Janata Samajwadi Party come together, a coalition government can be formed. The Congress has 63 MPs, the UCPN (Maoist) has 53 MPs and the JSP has 31 MPs.
In the absence of a coalition government, according to Article 76 (3) of the Constitution, the UML, as the largest party in parliament, has the opportunity to form a government. If it forms a minority government as the largest party, it must get a vote of confidence from parliament within 30 days.
With a vote of confidence, the government will survive, otherwise it will collapse.
In the event that the government fails to get a vote of confidence under Article 76 (3), the President may appoint a Prime Minister in accordance with Article 76 (5) if any member of Parliament provides a basis for a vote of confidence. The prime minister thus appointed must also take a vote of confidence within 30 days.
A political analyst who has been closely monitoring the recent political developments says, “According to the Supreme Court’s decision, if the UML and the Maoists are to emerge, then either the Congress should form a government in alliance with one of the parties.” Otherwise, the country will go to the polls.
He claims that the election may be held from next November to April if the situation arises.